All Arkansans will be hurt by the loss of nearly $10 billion over the next decade.
Medicaid is health insurance for people we care about, including seniors in nursing homes, pregnant women, low-income children and their parents, and people with disabilities. As Arkansas is a small state, chances are you know someone who has their health needs met through Medicaid. And as Congress continues to debate cuts to Medicaid, it is important to hear from Arkansans who would be negatively affected.
Numbers also tell an important story. And the sheer magnitude of the proposed cuts is alarming. Last week the House of Representatives approved a budget resolution calling for a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending over the next 10 years. The plan instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, to come up with at least $880 billion in cuts. While this $880 billion need not come from Medicaid, it is hard to identify other sources that would allow that particular committee to find such huge reductions in government programs. And indeed, some Congressional leaders have indicated they will meet this goal primarily through Medicaid.
If the $880 billion in cuts are absorbed by Medicaid, what would that mean for Arkansas? A look by U.S. Congressional district tells an alarming story:
| U.S. Congressional District | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4 |
| Congressman | Crawford | Hill | Womack | Westerman |
| Number of Constituents Covered by Medicaida (including children) | 222,004 | 183,475 | 150,965 | 212,231 |
| Likely Change in Medicaid Enrollmentb | -75,000 (-29.8%) | -63,000 (-31.8%) | -60,000 (-31.7%) | -77,000 (-30.0%) |
| Likely Increase in Number of Uninsuredb | 50,000 (95.8%) | 39,000 (68.0%) | 33,000 (59.9%) | 48,000 (93.8%) |
| Estimated Loss ($ Billions)c | 2.78 | 2.29 | 1.89 | 2.65 |
b“Reducing Federal Support for Medicaid Expansion Would Shift Costs to States and Likely Result in Coverage Losses,” Urban Institute, February 24, 2025.
cAACF Analysis of U.S. Census data.
Over the next 10 years, Arkansans would lose nearly $10 billion in health care coverage. Two districts in particular, the Arkansas 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, which include primarily rural areas of our state, would be especially impacted. In fact, these two districts are in the top 15% of all 435 congressional districts in the United States in likely Medicaid dollars lost. Congressmen Crawford and Westerman would see more than 150,000 of their constituents lose health care insurance through Medicaid. And most of them would have no other affordable option to buy insurance; nearly 100,000 would remain uninsured, according to a report from the Urban Institute. Medicaid is essential for health care in rural Arkansas, even more than in most states. With severe cuts, we are likely to lose rural hospitals and providers, requiring the state to dramatically increase health care spending across the state.
The reduction in Medicaid funding of $10 billion in Arkansas will cost all of us through increased illnesses and emergency room visits, higher transportation costs, decreased productivity and economic development, decline in medical services, and loss of nursing homes. Arkansans cannot afford Congress’s budget plan.
Explore Medicaid and your county in the map below:
Source: AACF Analysis of U.S. Census data.